Some mental models reviewed this quarter.

Only the paranoid survive

https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1996/07/08/214331/index.htm

1996: "Hey, what should our company be more open-minded to? I mean that is an absolute mindset.
Why over the years have we been having all these meetings about PDAs and set-top boxes?
Because we can afford to...Also, because we can't afford not to."

2021: Once the world leader of semiconductor manufacturing, Intel seems to have lost its way
https://pirque.s3.amazonaws.com/images/Intel's+Manufacturing+Timeline.jpeg

But the most important thing is the ability to survive until you get lucky again.
https://technation.io/report2021/

Surviving without paranoia

Transaction on acquisition of publishing rights of masterpieces:

J.R.R. Tolkien (1937-1949 novels), The Polar Express (1985 illustrated children's book)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/news-corp-nears-deal-to-buy-houghton-mifflin-harcourt-s-consumer-publishing-arm-11616970992

Shakira (music catalog), Neil Young (music catalog)
https://www.businessinsider.com/merck-stock-value-nile-rodgers-rights-music-taylor-swift-2021-2

Easier said than done...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/new-zealand-rugby-super-league/2021/04/29/40d1c81c-a891-11eb-a8a7-5f45ddcdf364_story.html
...and sometimes it means war...
https://time.com/5949979/why-taylor-swift-is-rerecording-old-albums/
...with an undefeated champ.
https://www.thewrap.com/apple-bows-to-taylor-swift-reverses-payment-policy-on-music-royalties/

Innovation in *some* public companies is underpriced

Potential is when you can accelerate faster than others

Exhibit A: The Walt Disney Company.

Pulls entire catalog (publishing rights of masterpieces) and launches state-of-the-art streaming service (only the paranoid survive). https://www.reuters.com/article/us-walt-disney-results/disney-to-pull-movies-from-netflix-plans-own-streaming-service-idUSKBN1AO2C4

Back in the leading position in under 2 years. https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/disney-tops-100-million-global-paid-subscriber-milestone/

Carlota, always.

https://avc.com/2020/12/what-happened-in-2020
But here is the thing about speculative frenzies – they are generally directionally correct but off in their order of magnitude.
And they finance the trend that they are directionally correct about.