/terminal corp evolution 2021 Q1

2021 Q1

Some mental models reviewed this quarter.

Only the paranoid survive
  • 1996: "Hey, what should our company be more open-minded to? I mean that is an absolute mindset.
    Why over the years have we been having all these meetings about PDAs and set-top boxes?
    Because we can afford to...Also, because we can't afford not to."
  • 2021: Once the world leader of semiconductor manufacturing, Intel seems to have lost its way
  • But the most important thing is the ability to survive until you get lucky again.

  • Surviving without paranoia

    Transaction on acquisition of publishing rights of masterpieces:

  • J.R.R. Tolkien (1937-1949 novels), The Polar Express (1985 illustrated children's book)
  • Shakira (music catalog), Neil Young (music catalog)
  • Easier said than done...
    ...and sometimes it means war...
    ...with an undefeated champ.

  • Innovation in *some* public companies is underpriced
  • Potential is when you can accelerate faster than others
  • Exhibit A: The Walt Disney Company.
  • Pulls entire catalog (publishing rights of masterpieces) and launches state-of-the-art streaming service (only the paranoid survive). https://www.reuters.com/article/us-walt-disney-results/disney-to-pull-movies-from-netflix-plans-own-streaming-service-idUSKBN1AO2C4
  • Back in the leading position in under 2 years. https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/disney-tops-100-million-global-paid-subscriber-milestone/

  • Carlota, always.
    But here is the thing about speculative frenzies – they are generally directionally correct but off in their order of magnitude.
    And they finance the trend that they are directionally correct about.