0. Shifts in world power.
The race to being the most advanced economy.

by 1900, the UK had lost its position as most advanced nation to USA.

read the first page (ideally the entire book) of "The American Invaders" written in 1901:

https://archive.org/details/americaninvader00mckegoog/page/n38/mode/2up

Germany had decoupled from Western Europe and was defying USA.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/average-real-gdp-per-capita-across-countries-and-regions?time=1870..1916&country=DEU~GBR~USA~Western%20Europe

Innovations:
Germany:
1893: Diesel engine - Diesel
1897: Cathode-ray tube - Braun
1898: Aspirin - Bayer
USA:
1891: Incandescent lamp - Edison
1901: Assembly line - Ford
1903: Airplane - Wright

back to 2020, China v USA

ultimate most advance skill: semiconductor industry

if/when captured by China, power shifts

"State-of-the-art chip factories now cost more than $10 billion to build, making them the most expensive factories ever built.
If only a small number of fabs can profitably exist, the question becomes whether they will be based in the United States and its partner democracies or in China."
https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/Khan-Flynn%E2%80%94Maintaining-Chinas-Dependence-on-Democracies.pdf

"From the perspective of some China policymakers, America is exhausted... divided politically, distracted by the COVID-19 pandemic and unlikely to risk American lives for something as abstract as a chip factory." https://steveblank.com/2020/06/18/the-coming-chip-wars-of-the-21st-century/

1. Hyperinflation in an advanced economy.
It happened less than 100 years ago.

Weimar Republic: Germany ~1920.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

Takes debt to finance war. Assumption: pay back once they win the war. Suspends gold standard.

Germany losses. War reparations are imposed. Reparations were NOT denominated in Marks.

Germany starts to print money. Prices up. Hyperinflation.
See graph: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbM1_N_XYAIyVB4?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Store of wealth? cash flies into "ownership" of hard assets.

Equities go up. Not because of better future prospects. Equity is ownership. The share holder is the new land owner.

Biggest German companies: Bayer, Bosch, BASF, IG Farben, etc they all remain large companies.
1 trillion marks or 1 dollar is not the question. The question is do you own a percentage of the companies that survive or not.

"Inflation comes like ketchup out of a glass bottle.
You keep slamming the bottle, but nothing happens.
Until more comes out than you wish for.
Your diner is then ruined."

2. The debasement of the US dollar.
Biggest transfer of wealth in our lifetime.

USD is the global reserve currency of the world, gold standard was lost in 1971.

COVID-19: this is not a consumer-driven crisis, it is government imposed.

Governments print money. Prices up. Hyperinflation.

Emerging currencies collapse first. Money flies into USD. Prices up. Hyperinflation. 2x

In attempt of defending local currencies. Tighter capital controls by emerging economies. Money flies into USD. Prices up. Hyperinflation. 3x

Shock of incoming capital to US economy. Decoupling of capital and productive assets (read Carlota Perez). Hyperinflation. 4x.
Pressure on USD is insane. There is no higher layer: debasement in favor of a new global reserve currency.

Store of wealth? cash flies into "ownership" of hard assets.

Equities go up. Not because of better future prospects. Equity is ownership. The share holder is the new land owner.
S&P measured in bitcoin not dollars: -90% since 2012
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXnDIBIWkAA7W32?format=jpg&name=medium

Biggest USA companies: Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, they all remain large companies.
1 trillion dollar or 1 bitcoin is not the question. The question is do you own a percentage of the companies that survive or not.

Banks and other financial companies with USD denominated non-productive assets: they all collapse

3. The fight for ownership of assets that will survive.
First in dollar. Then in the new reserve currency.

There is only so much that you can own. Money flows to assets were supply is finite.

Incoming capital wants ownership → markets unlocks (give liquidity) to new pockets of ownership.

3.1. Make private markets, quasi-public: investment platforms:
Real Estate: https://farmtogether.com/ etc (residential mkt https://twitter.com/glennkelman/status/1271529298445217792)
Small businesses: https://angel.co/ etc
Big private businesses: https://spacinsider.com/stats/ $18b YTD in SPACS ("reverse IPO"),1.3x 2019

3.2 Already liquid markets:
+ Gold as store of value:
average cost of a house in USA, in gold:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EaoW-xPXYAEtnFR?format=png&name=medium
1900: 250 ounce of gold
2020: 244 ounce of gold
Current demand: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XAUUSD/

+ Bitcoin as a store of value
average value of a bitcoin, in gold:
2013: 0.08 ounce of gold
2020: 5.69 ounce of gold
Current demand: pgs 7 and 12 https://grayscale.co/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Grayscale-Digital-Asset-Investment-Report-Q2-2020.pdf

4. Timing.

Impossible to know. Could take a decade to unfold, or maybe never, or maybe by end of year.

Timeless: The Art of Survival https://microcapclub.com/2020/04/the-art-of-survival/

5. Long America.
Land of the free, home of the brave.

Jeff: "It’s not a coincidence that Amazon was born in this country."
https://blog.aboutamazon.com/policy/statement-by-jeff-bezos-to-the-u-s-house-committee-on-the-judiciary

Elon: "SpaceX Dragon, we are go for launch, let's light this candle." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gmvUPTdoP4