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Year
2021
Quarter
Q3
Category
Drivers of Creative Destruction
Winners Take All
Disruption of the Incumbents
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Cloud
2021 Q3
56% enterprise data captured * 57% exploited = ⅓ of data leveraged
Cloud
2021 Q3
Edge network: close to data source but 2k km from cloud data center
edge computing → where real-time decision-making takes place
Cloud
2021 Q3
Moore's law still in effect, but chip-specialization driving prices
semiconductor co's chip race: “an app for that” → “a chip for that”
EdgeQ's new AI 5G chip can replace multiple other components
Cloud
2021 Q3
Mediatek ~1yr behind Qualcomm in terms of productizing the new standard
Cloud
2021 Q3
fastest cpu race: 🥇🇯🇵Fugaku 🥈🇺🇸IBM summit 🥉🇺🇸IBM sierra
OS
2021 Q3
low-cost way to kick-start innovation: N strangers, 1 cause
*licensed* software, free of charge, w/ copyright protection
OS
2021 Q3
value of OS: adoption → critical community mass → de facto standard
license+governance directly impact its community health
funding model can influence the governance + the license choice
OS
2021 Q3
biz models: v1 "Consulting" = OS code, sell consulting
v2 "Cloud" = OS *some* code, sell a closed source cloud complement
v3 "Community" = OS code, issue token / charge access to community
OS
2021 Q3
open source powers the world: 80% the Web → Linux operating system
65m developers on GitHub, 100m repositories, 3m orgs (72% F50)
open source projects by repo: Code.gov 6.8k, AWS 3.8k, Airbnb 0.2k
OS
2021 Q3
OpenAI's new tool: writes software code in response to natural lang input
OS
2021 Q3
Waymo's Open Dataset: 2k 20sec clips of sync camera and LiDAR data
labeled data: 12.6m 3D labels (LiDAR) + 11.8m 2D labels (camera)
OS
2021 Q3
42m Raspberry Pi sold, 7m sold in 2020, #3 best-selling cpu
raises $45m million at a $500m pre-money valuation
$70 R Pi 400: complete personal cpu, built into a compact keyboard
OS
2021 Q3
Robot OS 2: set of software libraries/tools for building robot apps
55% of the world’s robots will include a ROS package by 2024E
OS
2021 Q3
1.5k OSHWA certified projects: standard for *hardware* OS
ML
2021 Q3
underlying point is machine learning means computers can 'see'
100m km² (98% world pop) on Google Maps high-def satellite imagery
ML
2021 Q3
ML is both rocket science and tractors
i. cutting-edge scientists @ cutting-edge companies unlock new things
ii. boring old-economy companies automate processes with generic ML
ML
2021 Q3
ML is impressive, but no understanding/context/judgment. Still automation
machine learning gives you infinite interns, not super-humans
ML
2021 Q3
AI doubles: cpu power @ 3.4/mo , ML efficiency @ 16/mo
ML
2021 Q3
SuperGLUE (8 primary tasks + 2 diagnostic tasks): Human Baselines = 89.8
🥇Ernie Team(BIDU)=90.6 🥈Z.Wang(GOOG)=90.4 🥉DeBERTa(MSFT)=90.3
ML
2021 Q3
medical knowledge w/ DL: 2x @ 70 days (2020) vs 2x @ 3.5yrs (2010)
FDA-cleared algorithms for medical imaging: 2008=1, 2018=18
biology research papers referencing ML: 2000=0 → 2010=2 → 2020=22
ML
2021 Q3
ML survey: Google ≠ 'all the AI'. Growing hubs: Boston,NYC,🇮🇱,🇬🇧
ML
2021 Q3
Adobe releases "Super Resolution" ML tool to enhance image resolution
commercial photo eaten by ML: Ikea's catalogues already entirely CGI
ML
2021 Q3
natural image synthesis, a class of ML: image super-resolution
trained model transforms a low res image into a high resolution
ML
2021 Q3
1b surveillance cameras installed globally: 🇨🇳=540m, 🇺🇸=80m
Flock system: 500m/mo vehicle scans, 500 PDs, 1k cities
Borders
2021 Q3
280m international migrants (3.6% world pop), 🥇🇺🇸=51m 🥈🇩🇪=16m 🥉🇸🇦=13m
El Salvador: permanent residency for immigrants = post 3 BTC
Borders
2021 Q3
UK post-brexit to boost: trade, security, diplomacy in 🇯🇵🇦🇺🇮🇳
first non-African nation to recognize Africa Continental FTA
1m people in financial services in UK; new paperwork when biz w/ 🇪🇺
499km 🇮🇪|🇬🇧 border → open border. de facto 🇪🇺|🇬🇧 border → Irish Sea
Borders
2021 Q3
25m displacement by disasters + 9m by conflict and violence in 2019
1b people to face migration by 2050E due to ecological factors
Borders
2021 Q3
11°C - 15°C optimum climate for human life
A/C + Zoom + StarLink + eCommerce = activate rural?
Borders
2021 Q3
40% of the Earth’s surface = intl waters (unclaimed by any nation-state)
10-20% of CO2 stored by phytoplankton is transported to the deep sea
Borders
2021 Q3
water is underpriced → overused. biggest emerging market on Earth
will keep flowing: toward the highest bidder
reverse diaspora: cloud 1st, land last (not necessarily contiguous)
from 193 nation states to 10k city states (4k cities with pop>150k)
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